The Hard Truth

Journal of Political News & Constitutionalism

U.S. Military Warns that Mexican Government May Collapse with Dire Consequences for USA

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‘Under sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs and drug cartels’

Posted: January 15, 2009
12:00 am Eastern

By Jerome R. Corsi
© 2009 WorldNetDaily


Mexican army parades in Mexico City

Mexico is one of two countries marked for “a rapid and sudden collapse,” according to a Joint Operating Environment 2008 report on worldwide security threats prepared by the U.S. Joint Forces Command in Norfolk, Va.

The report states “the Mexican government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs and drug cartels.”

The report is yet another indication the Bush administration sees the escalation of drug war violence in Mexico as a serious threat. Washington fears the war not only could spill over into the U.S., but also threaten the political stability of the government of President Felipe Calderon.

“How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state,” the report says. “Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone.”

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Adm. John Richardson, director for strategy and policy at Joint Forces Command, emphasized in an interview with WND that the aim of the report is not to make predictions.

“We go to great pains in this report to say it is not predictive and that it is hard to predict the future,” he said. “So, while we don’t have a crystal ball, we have to try to open up a discussion among senior leaders about the future so we are not caught unprepared for the potential trends we see out there.”

Richardson explained the report is a statement of worst-case scenarios that might face the U.S. military in the future.

“The report is designed to stimulate discussion among leaders aimed at the Joint Force commander,” he said. “The JOE 2008 is a think-piece that is not predictive and it is not a policy document. It is a problem statement identifying national security demands we believe the Joint Force faces at an operational level.”

WND reported yesterday that the Department of Homeland Security has developed contingency plans involving U.S. Northern Command to deploy the U.S. military to protect American citizens in the event Mexico’s drug war spills across the border.

Discussing the plans, Department of Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff noted that criminal activity in Mexico caused more than 5,300 deaths last year. The DHS contingency plans, he said, were ordered to prepare for a spillover of the type of violence in Mexico that has killed members of warring drug cartels, law enforcement officers and civilians.

Richardson said he was aware of the DHS contingency planning.

“This is exactly why we write the Joint Operation Environment, to give commands like Northern Command, as well as the other combatant commands, something to think about in maximizing their preparedness,” he said.

WND also has reported on the “Merida Initiative” under which the U.S. Congress at the strong urging of the Bush administration allocated in December $197 million of the $500 million authorized under a planned $1.6 billion program. The program aims to provide U.S. military assistance in the form of training and equipment to the Mexican military to help it combat the drug cartels.

Earlier in 2008, Congress funded $99 million under the Merida Initiative to Mexico through the Defense Security Cooperation Agency.

Richardson indicated the Joint Forces Command has not played a direct role in the Merida Initiative.

“The U.S. Joint Forces Command is a functional combatant command that supports USNORTHCOM and all the other combatant commands in a variety of ways, starting with development of future concepts, with our JOE 2008 being one of the most futuristic documents,” he emphasized.

“The JOE 2008 is a futuristic document looking eight to 25 years out, and we refine these concepts through experimentation and war games, so that the ideas which survive the refinement process are integrated into the larger picture of a capability development within the various combatant commands of the U.S. military,” Richardson said.

“We start with concepts and then refine those, with the goal of capabilities development and integrating across the services into a multi-national and coalitions-type of environment, so the concepts will work with everyone we potentially partner with.”

“As the capabilities are further developed, the time-line draws into more of the current situation where we provide training of joint force headquarters and provide joint force training, where we ultimately put together teams to respond to needs.”

In his 90-minute meeting in Washington with Calderon last week, President-elect Obama expressed his continued support for continuing the Merida Initiative.

WND has also reported that federal Border Patrol agents along the southern border with Mexico have been increasingly reluctant to fire their weapons against drug dealers after Border Patrol agents Jose Compean and Ignacio Ramos were convicted and sentenced to prison for a 2005 incident. The two agents fired on a drug smuggler as he fled back into Mexico after bringing 750 pounds of marijuana into the U.S. near Fabens, Texas.

Mexico’s escalating drug violence adds political pressure to the stability of the Calderon government at a time when the country faces increasing unemployment as NAFTA exports to the U.S. have declined in the current recession.

Calderon was elected in September 2006 when Mexican courts declared him the winner after more than two months of uncertainty. Left presidential rival Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador claimed voting irregularities had stolen for Calderon a narrow victory by 233,831 votes of the 41.6 million cast.

Under Mexican law, Calderon cannot be re-elected after serving his six-year term as president


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